Forex Market: Upper Time Compression Technical Commentary
Written by Britt Maras on September 9, 2009 – 6:56 am -European Fundamentals Not Supportive Versus US Dollar
I rarely trade the Week time compression but right now it is worth sharing some comments. Let’s start with today’s we have a Market Timing Alert forex signal:
Wed Sept. 9: 9:40-10:20 a.m. EDT start window for 3 hours duration with moderate to strong price action
Now onto the big picture view and forex trading: My week time compression offers a potential bullish thrust towards 1.5000 – which if it occurs may be extremely exhaustive and could lead to a collapse in the pair. Potential remains that key resistance at 1.4733-79 could offer a quick stall and any move above 1.4819 could lead to an exhaustive burst to 1.5007 – 1.5240.
Inasmuch I offer this comment, it is difficult for me immediately to find a bull entry here as I rarely if ever enter a horizontal breakout of key levels. Let me emphasize that I feel the EUR/USD is nearing the end of the recent bullish correction but often times a currency will fully retrace an extraordinary move such as occurred from the collapse last August from 1.5200; regardless of the amount of time it takes.
There are always various philosophical reasons for this notwithstanding technicals:
1. The move from 1.5300 downward was entirely technical and long overdue EVEN THOUGH coincidence appears that US Equity markets offered up Bear Stearns and then Lehman Brothers as the bride. The Dollar bull move was certainly technical, regardless!! 2. There may actually be savvy investors still holding euro long positions near and above 1.4700 OR on the other hand and of a better logic is – there may be prominent and savvy institutions STILL holding EUR/USD shorts from this level 1.4500 onward through to 1.5000 plus and as is typical in forex trading there is no free lunch.
Flying at 43,000 feet is a great view of nothing but blue sky but you cannot see dirt unless you have a telescope and a floor window in the cockpit. So much for the big picture view! There is plenty of sand in the euro sandbox right now so keep your goggles and your eyes free of the grit!
Daily Technical Outlook
Immediate Support is at 1.4455-31-13, 1.4373-59, 1.4277,1.4192/84, 1.4079 – 43
I feel there was an illegal (a technical violation) move from 1.4359-64 and then again down near 1.4280. Violations like this ALSO need to be revisited SOONER than later. I am in stand-down mode but I will remain focused on any type of impromptu news that may exacerbate exhaustion or reestablish the EUR/USD within some reasonable technical structure. Comments are appreciated! Thanks for reading!
Britt Maras – Senior Currency Strategist
Tags: forex market, forex signal, forex trading, market timing
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