Trade Opportunity Tonight / Live Trade Call for January 14, 2010
Written by Dustin Pass on January 13, 2010 – 11:42 am -TRADE CALL RECAP
This morning we were watching the UK Industrial Production report. For this release we were looking to buy the GBPUSD if the number came out at least 0.5% better than expected. The actual number came out only 0.1% better than expected so it did not meet our safe trigger.
TRADE OPPORTUNITY LATER TODAY
There is a potential for a good news trade later today when the Australian Labor Change report is released at 7:30 pm EST. The focus should be on the Labor Force Employment figure, and the expectation for this release is 10k jobs. We have placed a safe trigger of 15k jobs for this release. We have historically seen moves of around 25 to 75 pips when this release has met the safe deviation.
We will most likely prefer to see a buy trigger on this particular release as the AUDUSD is currently in a strong uptrend. We could still get a good move on a sell trigger, but you will likely want to exit with 25-40 pips of profit if it triggers a sell. You will want to keep a close eye on this release as the news can sometimes come out a little late. If you see a quick move on the AUDUSD before the news comes out, you will want to shut off the auto-click quickly.
This release met our safe triggers nine times last year and provided a 30 to 80 pip move each time. This release has had a significant deviation in each of the last three months, causing the AUDUSD to move 50-75 pips each time. The chart of the AUDUSD at the time of last month’s release is below:
We will not have the Live Trade Room open for these trades, but I wanted to make you aware of this opportunity.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
Our next live trade opportunity comes tomorrow when the US Retail Sales report is released at 8:30 am EST. We will focus on the Retail Sales Less Autos figure, which is expected to be 0.5%, and we will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.7% on this release to trigger a safe trade. We have changed our focus to trade the EURJPY as the GBPUSD has spiked the wrong direction the last few months on this particular release. Therefore, a better than expected number will trigger a buy on the EURJPY.
We will most likely prefer to see a buy trigger on the EURJPY for this particular release, as a better than expected number should have a good impact on the stock market. We could also see a quick move on a sell trigger, but we will most likely close out quickly if we do get a sell trigger. We will want to use caution on this trade as there is some additional US data that will be released at the same time that could also affect the trade.
This release met our safe trigger eight times last year, and the EURJPY moved 30 to 85 pips each time. This report last met our trigger last month and we had traders report profits of up to 35 pips on the trade. Below is a chart showing the movement of the EURJPY at the time of last month’s release:
The video of last month’s trade is below:
This is our current outlook for this trade; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the release to get my commentary on this potential trade.
Good Luck!!!!
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Tags: AUD Employment, forex news trading, US Retail Sales
Posted in Forex News Trading Live |