Live Trade Call for May 20, 2010
Written by Dustin Pass on May 19, 2010 – 11:40 am -TRADE CALL RECAP
For our last live trade call, we were watching the US CPI report this morning. We recommended raising the safe trigger for this release, so we were looking to sell the EURJPY if the number came out at least 0.2% worse than expected. The actual number came out 0.1% worse than expected so it did not meet our safe trigger.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
Our next live trade opportunity comes tomorrow when the UK Retail Sales report is released at 4:30 am EDT (8:30 am GMT). For this release we will focus on the Retail Sales (MoM) figure, and the expected number for this report is 0.3%. We will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.4% on this report to trigger a safe trade. A higher than expected number will be good for the GBP and signal a long on the GBPUSD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the GBP and signal a short on the GBPUSD.
We will prefer to see a sell trigger on this particular release as it could affect the GBP more if the number comes out worse than expected. However, we could still see a 20-40 pip move if the safe buy trigger is met. I will most likely close the entire trade with 20-40 pips if we get a buy trigger. If we get a sell trigger and get a move of 30-40 pips, I will most likely close a portion of the trade and then lock in and hold the other portion of the trade for an even larger potential move.
The UK Retail Sales met our safe trigger nine months in the last year, and the GBPUSD moved between 25 and 80 pips each time, except for a couple of times in which there were extenuating circumstances. This release last met our safe triggers in March, and traders reported up to 50 pips of profit on the trade. The chart below shows how the GBPUSD reacted to March’s release:
The video of March’s trade can be seen below:
This is our current outlook for this trade; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the release to get my commentary on this potential trade.
Good Luck!!!!
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Tags: forex news trading, UK Retail Sales
Posted in Forex News Trading Live |