Live Trade Call for November 19, 2009
Written by Dustin Pass on November 18, 2009 – 12:58 pm -TRADE CALL RECAPS
For our last live trade calls, we were watching the Canadian and US CPI reports this morning. For the Canadian CPI report, there were several components and our focus was on the Core CPI (YoY) component. We were looking to buy the EURCAD if the number came out at least 0.2% worse than expected. The actual number came out only 0.1% worse than expected, so it did not meet our safe trigger.
For the US CPI, we were looking to buy the EURJPY if the number came out at least 0.1% better than expected. The actual number came out 0.1% better than expected so it met our safe trigger. At the same time, some US housing data came out that was in conflict with the CPI data, so the EURJPY initially went down about 15-20 pips. I suggested taking a small loss on this trade, or to close as soon as some profit was seen. After a couple of minutes, the EURJPY did go up so that the traders who held out were able to get out with a small gain on the trade. A video of this trade is below:
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
Our next live trade opportunity comes tomorrow when the UK Retail Sales report comes out at 4:30 am EST. For this release we will focus on the Retail Sales (MoM) figure, and the expected number for this report is 0.5%. We will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.4% on this report to trigger a safe trade. A higher than expected number will be good for the GBP and signal a long on the GBPUSD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the GBP and signal a short on the GBPUSD.
I would prefer to see a sell trigger on this particular release as it could affect the GBP more if the number comes out worse than expected, especially if it’s a negative number. However, we could still see a 20-40 pip move if the safe buy trigger is met. I will most likely close the entire trade with 20-40 pips if we get a buy trigger. If we get a sell trigger and get a move of 30-40 pips, I will most likely close a portion of the trade and then lock in and hold the other portion of the trade for an even larger potential move.
The UK Retail Sales has met our safe trigger in eight out of ten months this year, and the GBPUSD has moved between 25 and 80 pips each time, except for a couple of times in which there were extenuating circumstances. The last time this release met our safe trigger was last month, and traders reported up to 45 pips of profit on the trade. The chart below shows how the GBPUSD reacted to last month’s release:
The video of last month’s trade can be seen below:
This is our current outlook for this trade; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the release to get my commentary on this potential trade.
Good Luck!!!!
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Tags: forex news trading, UK Retail Sales
Posted in Forex News Trading Live |