Live Trade Calls for March 1, 2010
Written by Dustin Pass on February 28, 2010 – 4:30 pm -TRADE CALL RECAPS
For our last live trade calls, we were watching the UK and US GDP reports last Friday morning. For the UK GDP, I suggested raising the safe trigger so we were looking to buy the GBPUSD if the number came out at least 0.2% better than expected. The actual number came out with only a 0.1% deviation, so it did not meet our safe trigger. The second row of data came out strong as a sell, so after a small spike up the GBPUSD started down, so it was good that we raised the safe trigger. The video of this trade is below.
For the US GDP, we were looking to buy the EURJPY if the number came out at least 0.7% better than expected. The actual number came out only 0.2% better than expected so it also did not meet our safe trigger. The video of this trade is below.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
We will have two opportunities for trades tomorrow morning when the Canadian GDP and US ISM reports will be released. The Canadian GDP report is first and will be released at 8:30 am EST. For this report, the expectation is 0.4% and we will most likely set our deviation to at least 0.3% to trigger a safe trade. A higher than expected number would be good for the CAD, and signal a sell on the USDCAD and EURCAD. We could expect a 20-40 pip move on the EURCAD if it meets our safe trigger.
This release can be an interesting one as the Canadian GDP is the broadest measure of economic health in Canada. Our focus for this particular release will be on the EURCAD as there is also the US data that could have an impact on the USDCAD. We will most likely prefer a buy trigger on this release as that could have a bigger impact on the market, especially if the number comes out negative. However, this release has not moved very well the last few times it has met our safe triggers, so we will use extra caution on this release. Again, we will raise our safe trigger to 0.3% for this release.
This report met our safe trigger three times last year, causing the EURCAD to move between 10-25 pips each time. This report last met our safe trigger in September, and the EURCAD did not react very well to the deviation. Most traders reported getting out at breakeven or taking a small loss on the trade. However, there was a very good move in October with just a 0.2% deviation. Below is a chart for the EURCAD at the time of September’s release:
A video of September’s trade is below:
The second trade opportunity tomorrow comes when the US ISM Manufacturing Report is released at 10:00 am EST. The expected number for this report is 57.7. A higher than expected number will be good for the USD and signal a long on the USDJPY and EURJPY, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the USD and signal a short on the USDJPY and EURJPY. We will be looking for a deviation of at least 2.1 on this report to trigger a safe trade.
For this trade we will focus on the EURJPY and we will likely prefer a buy trigger as a better than expected number could have a bigger impact on the stock market. However, we could see a good move on a sell trigger as well so we will trade it either way. We will be cautious as there is additional US data coming out at the same time.
This report last met our safe trigger last month, and there was a good reaction to this data. We had traders report profit of up to 20 pips on the EURJPY, depending on their entries. The chart of the EURJPY at the time of last month’s release is below.
The video of last month’s trade is below:
This is our current outlook for these trade opportunities; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these trades.
Good Luck!!!!
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Tags: Canadian GDP, forex news trading, US ISM Mfg
Posted in Forex News Trading Live |