Live Trade Calls for March 19, 2010
Written by Dustin Pass on March 18, 2010 – 12:21 pm -TRADE CALL RECAP
For our last live trade call, we were watching the US CPI report this morning. This release had not had much impact on the market recently, so we suggested raising our safe triggers. We were looking to buy the EURJPY if the number came out at least 0.3% better than expected. The actual number came out with no deviation so it did not meet the raised safe trigger.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
Tomorrow we will have two opportunities for a trade when the Canadian CPI and Canadian Retail Sales reports are released. The first opportunity comes when the Canadian CPI report is released at 7:00 am EDT. There are several components to this release, and we will be focusing on the CAD CPI Excluding Core 8 (YoY) figure. The expectation for this report is 1.7%. We will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.2% to trigger a safe trade. A lower than expected number will trigger a buy on the USDCAD or EURCAD.
The USDCAD and EURCAD are currently in a down trend, so our focus on this particular release will be biased for a sell on the USDCAD and even the EURCAD, but we could see a 15-30 pip spike either way if it meets our trigger. We will use caution on this particular release as it has gone the wrong direction a few times recently. Because of this, we will most likely raise our safe trigger to 0.3%.
This report last met our raised safe trigger in June, and the USDCAD only dropped about 10-15 and stalled so we recommended closing the trade with small profits. We had traders report profits of 5-10 pips on this particular trade. The chart below shows how the USDCAD reacted at the time of last June’s release:
We do not have a video of last June’s release, so to see a video of the December 2008 trade, click on the link below:
http://www.forextradersdaily.com/vid/CADCPI121908/
Our next opportunity comes when the Canadian Retail Sales report is released at 8:30 am EDT. For the Canadian Retail Sales report, our focus will be on the Canadian Retail Sales Less Autos report, and the expected number for this report is 0.5%. A higher than expected number will be good for the CAD and signal a short on the USD/CAD and EURCAD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the CAD and signal a long on the USDCAD and EURCAD. We will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.4% on this report to trigger a safe trade.
For this trade, we will focus on the EURCAD since it typically moves more than the USDCAD. We will probably prefer to see a sell signal on this release, but it should still be tradable either way. We will use caution on this release as we have had some quick spikes then reversals lately on this particular release.
This report met our safe trigger seven times last year and provided moves of 15 to 90 pips each time. It last met our safe trigger in January and provided traders with up to 10 pips of profit on the USDCAD and EURCAD, depending on their entries. The chart below shows the movement of the USDCAD at the time of January’s release.
The video of January’s trade is below:
This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these potential trades.
Good Luck!!!!
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Tags: CAD Retail Sales, Canadian CPI, forex news trading
Posted in Forex News Trading Live |