Trade Opportunity Later Today / Live Trade Call for March 25, 2010
Written by Dustin Pass on March 24, 2010 – 12:05 pm -TRADE CALL RECAP
For our last live trade call, we were watching the US Durable Goods report this morning. We were looking to buy the EURJPY if the number came out at least 2.0% better than expected. The actual number came out only 0.3% better than expected so it did not meet our safe trigger.
TRADE OPPORTUNITY LATER TODAY
There is an opportunity to trade later today when the New Zealand GDP report is released at 5:45pm EDT (9:45 pm GMT). The focus should be on the GDP Q/Q figure, and the expectation for this release is 0.8%. We have placed a safe trigger of 0.3% for this release. We have historically seen moves of around 20 to 45 pips when this release has met the safe deviation.
We will probably prefer to see a sell trigger on this trade as the NZDUSD is currently in a medium term down trend. However, it should be good for 20-40 pips in either direction if it meets the safe trigger. I would recommend caution on this trade as the New Zealand data has a tendency to come out late. If you see a large spike on the NZDUSD prior to the data coming in you should turn off the auto-click immediately.
The chart below shows the market movement of the NZDUSD at the time of the release last September:
We will not have the Live Trade Room open for this trade, but I wanted to make you aware of the opportunity.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
Our next live trade opportunity comes tomorrow when the UK Retail Sales report is released at 5:30 am EDT (9:30 am GMT). For this release we will focus on the Retail Sales (MoM) figure, and the expected number for this report is 0.6%. We will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.4% on this report to trigger a safe trade. A higher than expected number will be good for the GBP and signal a long on the GBPUSD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the GBP and signal a short on the GBPUSD.
I would prefer to see a sell trigger on this particular release as the GBPUSD is in a down trend. However, we could still see a 20-40 pip move if the safe buy trigger is met. I will most likely close the entire trade with 20-40 pips if we get a buy trigger. If we get a sell trigger and get a move of 30-40 pips, I will most likely close a portion of the trade and then lock in and hold the other portion of the trade for an even larger potential move.
The UK Retail Sales met our safe trigger in nine months last year, and the GBPUSD moved between 25 and 80 pips each time, except for a couple of times in which there were extenuating circumstances. This release last met our safe triggers last month, and traders reported up to 30 pips of profit on the trade. The chart below shows how the GBPUSD reacted to last month’s release:
The video of last month’s trade can be seen below:
This is our current outlook for this trade; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the release to get my commentary on this potential trade.
Good Luck!!!!
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Tags: forex news trading, NZD GDP, UK Retail Sales
Posted in Forex News Trading Live |