Trade Opportunity Later Today / Live Trade Calls for April 14, 2010
Written by Dustin Pass on April 13, 2010 – 11:38 am -TRADE CALL RECAPS
For our last live trade call, we were looking at the Canadian and US Trade Balance reports this morning. For the Canadian Trade Balance we raised our safe trigger, so we were looking to sell the EURCAD if the number came out at least $1.2 Billion better than expected. The number came out only $0.8 Billion better than expected, so it did not meet our safe trigger. We recommended not trading the US Trade Balance and it did not meet our safe triggers either. The video of these trades is below:
TRADE OPPORTUNITY LATER TODAY
There is an opportunity to trade later today when the NZD Retail Sales report is released at 6:45pm EDT (10:45 pm GMT). The focus should be on the Retail Sales All Industries figure, and the expectation for this release is 0.2%. We have placed a safe trigger of 0.6% for this release. We have historically seen moves of around 20 to 45 pips when this release has met this safe deviation.
This release last met our safe trigger in February, and the NZDUSD moved approximately 35 pips. I would suggest you use caution on this particular release and trade lower lots than usual. The Core Retail Sales comes out at the same time and could come out in conflict with the All Industries number, so you will want to watch for that. In addition, the NZD data can come out late sometimes so you will want to keep a close watch on the movement on the NZDUSD prior to the data coming out and if it spikes quickly, turn off the auto-click on the RSS.
The chart below shows the market movement of the NZDUSD at the time of February’s release:
We will not have the Live Trade Room open for this trade, but I wanted to make you aware of the opportunity.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
We will have two opportunities for trades tomorrow when the US Retail Sales and US CPI reports are both released at 8:30 am EDT (12:30 pm GMT). Our focus on these reports is the EURJPY as it typically moves much better than the GBPUSD.
Higher than expected numbers will be good for the USD and signal a long on the EURJPY, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the USD and signal a short on the EURJPY. For the Retail Sales figure we will be looking for a deviation of 0.7% on this report to trigger a safe trade. For the CPI, we will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.1%.
Our focus will most likely be on the US Retail Sales Less Autos number and we will most likely prefer a buy trigger on these reports as the EURJPY is currently in an uptrend. I anticipate a 30-50 pip spike either way, but it may just be a temporary move if we get a sell trigger. We will use extreme caution tomorrow as conflicting data is a possibility.
The US Retail Sales report has met our safe trigger eight times in the last year, and the EURJPY moved 30 to 85 pips each time. This report last met our safe trigger last month and we had traders report profits of up to 32 pips on the trade. Below is a chart showing the movement of the EURJPY at the time of last month’s release:
The video of last month’s trade is below:
This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these potential trades.
Good Luck!!!!
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Tags: forex news trading, US CPI, US Retail Sales
Posted in Forex News Trading Live |