Trade Opportunity Later Today / Live Trade Calls for March 12, 2010
Written by Dustin Pass on March 11, 2010 – 9:29 am -TRADE CALL RECAPS
For our last live trade call, we were looking at the Canadian and US Trade Balance reports this morning. For the Canadian Trade Balance we raised our safe trigger, so we were looking to sell the EURCAD if the number came out at least $1.5 Billion better than expected. The number came out only $0.6 Billion better than expected, so it did not meet our safe trigger. We recommended not trading the US Trade Balance and it did not meet our safe triggers either. The video of these trades is below:
TRADE OPPORTUNITY LATER TODAY
There is an opportunity to trade later today when the NZD Retail Sales report is released at 4:45pm EDT. The focus should be on the Retail Sales All Industries figure, and the expectation for this release is 0.5%. We have placed a safe trigger of 0.6% for this release. We have historically seen moves of around 20 to 45 pips when this release has met this safe deviation.
This release last met our safe trigger last month, and the NZDUSD moved approximately 35 pips. I would suggest you use caution on this particular release and trade lower lots than usual. The Core Retail Sales comes out at the same time and could come out in conflict with the All Industries number, so you will want to watch for that. In addition, the NZD data can come out late sometimes so you will want to keep a close watch on the movement on the NZDUSD prior to the data coming out and if it spikes quickly, turn off the auto-click on the RSS.
The chart below shows the market movement of the NZDUSD at the time of last month’s release:
We will not have the Live Trade Room open for this trade, but I wanted to make you aware of the opportunity.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
We will have two opportunities for trades tomorrow when the Canadian Labor Change and the US Retail Sales reports are released. Both are excellent opportunities that can have a significant impact on the market.
The first release is the Canadian Labor Change report, which will be released at 7:00 am EST. This is one of my favorite releases as our safe trigger is often met and we get some very good moves on this particular release. The expectation for this report is around 17k jobs.
A higher than expected number will be good for the CAD and signal a short on the USDCAD and EURCAD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the CAD and signal a long on the USDCAD and EURCAD. We will be looking for a deviation of 15k on this report to trigger a safe trade.
We are not biased either way for this trade as it should provide a good move either way. We will keep an eye on the trade if it triggers and determine at that time if we will continue to hold a portion of the trade or close completely when we see a 30 to 50 pip move.
This report has met our safe trigger in ten out of the last twelve months, and we have had traders report profits of 30 pips and more on each trade. We have even had traders report profits of up to 100 pips and more on the EURCAD on this release!
This release last met our safe trigger last month and we had traders report profits of up to 30 pips on the trade. The chart for the USDCAD at the time of last month’s trade is below:
The video of last month’s trade is below:
Our second trade opportunity tomorrow when the US Retail Sales report is released at 8:30 am EST. We will focus on the Core Retail Sales figure, which is expected to be approximately 0.1%. Our focus on this report is the EURJPY as it typically moves much better than the GBPUSD.
A higher than expected number will be good for the USD and signal a long on the EURJPY, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the USD and signal a short on the EURJPY. We wil be looking for a deviation of 0.7% on this report to trigger a safe trade.
We will most likely prefer a buy trigger as that could have a bigger impact on the stock market than a sell trigger. I anticipate a 30-50 pip spike either way, but it may just be a temporary move if we get a sell trigger.
This release has met our safe trigger eight times in the last year, and the EURJPY moved 30 to 85 pips each time. This report last met our safe trigger in December and we had traders report profits of up to 35 pips on the trade. Below is a chart showing the movement of the EURJPY at the time of last month’s release:
The video of December’s trade is below:
This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these potential trades.
Good Luck!!!!
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Tags: CAD Employment, forex news trading, NZD Retail Sales, US Retail Sales
Posted in Forex News Trading Live |