I wanted to recap what we did on the last live trade call and give you the criteria for a possible trade tomorrow. The last trade call I sent out covered the US Retail Sales report last Friday.
For the US Retail Sales report, the plan was to go long on the GBP/USD if the release came out lower than expected by 0.5% or more from the expected number. The actual number came out with a deviation of -0.6%, so our trigger was hit and we had many traders who made from 8 to 30 pips. To see the video of the trade click on the following link:
RESULTS OF NZD TRADE LAST NIGHT
I sent out a trade call e-mail yesterday in which I talked about the NZD CPI news release that came out last night. This was the first time we had placed a trigger on this news release. We planned to go long on the NZD/USD if the report came out better than expected by 0.3% or higher. The actual deviation came out at 0.2% on the quarter-to-quarter figure that we were focusing on, so it didn’t hit our safe trigger. However, it looked as though at least 75 traders had a trigger of 0.2% or lower and got triggered into a buy. To see a video of the trade, click on the following link:
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
Tomorrow we will have an opportunity to trade when the UK CPI report is released at 4:30 am EDT. For this news release we are going to change our focus from the Core CPI (YoY) to the CPI Harmonized EU (YoY). As you know, market conditions change and it now appears that the Bank of England focuses more on the CPI Harmonized (YoY) figure. Last month was a good example of the change of focus. The CPI figures came out at the same time as the UK Trade Balance. There was a positive deviation in both the Trade Balance and the Core CPI, yet the GBP/USD went down over 40 pips as a result of a lower than expected CPI Harmonized (YoY) number.
The expectation for the CPI Harmonized (YoY) is 2.3%. We will be looking for a deviation of 0.2% to trigger a safe trade. A higher than expected number would be good for the GBP and would signal a long on the GBP/USD, and a lower than expected number would be bad for the GBP so that would signal a short on the GBP/USD. To see the video of last month’s trade, click on the following link:
Good Luck!!!!
