Today we had UK Trade Balance and it came out less than expected but only by about .2 so this was a no trade. I told those in the trade room that if I had any technical advice it would be to short the gbp if it broke the low. Fortunately it did break and even though I didn’t make money on the news release I did make a nice chunk on the break. after it broke the low I entered at 1.8629 and closed at 1.8611. If you would like to see a a video of today’s trade click here. that video may take a few seconds to load. Now for tomorrows trade.
We have a couple of releases to watch the first one is at 4:30am eastern and is the UK CPI which is expected at .3%. My focus will be on the CPI (MoM) however I will keep an eye on the Core. The trigger for this trade will be .2% and a higher number will signal a buy on the GBP/USD and a lower number will signal a sell. .2% has created moves from 12 pips up to 50 pips and the average is around 30 pips and recently the news has been moving the market rather well even with lower deviation so if it hits our trigger it should be a good move.
The next release I will be watching is the US Trade balance at 8:30am eastern and this is expected at -65.5 billion. I would like to see around 1billion in deviation and a higher than expected number signals a sell and a lower than expected number signals a buy on the GBP/USD. This release commonly off by 1billion and in the past has been off by 8.8billion back in August of 2004. There are only 2 occurrences of this release coming out at 1b deviation and on 7/12/06 it moved around 75 pips with 1.1 deviation and then 6/10/05 it moved 49 pips on 1b deviation however I have also seen this come out substantially higher and only move a little like on 7/13/04 us cane out with 2.3b in deviation and only moved 30 pips. I am looking forward to this release because it should be a good trade. If this is the first time you are receiving my call please go to this page for important information on how to trade my calls Good Luck now go make some money!!!!!
