Today we had 2 releases we were going to watch. The first was the UK retail sales expected at .3%. This came out as expected however it is a good opportunity for me to talk about revisions. It has been my experience that revisions can be equally effective when the release comes out as expected, What I mean is that if the trigger for a given trade is .3 and the release comes out as expected and the number for the last month is revised by an amount equal to the trigger for the current release the revision can have the same affect as the release. Today was a good example of that. They revised last months by .3% more which gave a long biased and moved the market as if the trigger was hit, today the revision did just that sending the market up about 30 pips. In my course I also cover technical trading as well and one of the trades that I cover occurred today and provided for a really nice move. Only a couple of people got in on this however when we came back for the US Release a few hours later they were still in the trade long on the GBP/USD. I cant tell you how good it makes me feel to see people grasp a concept and put it to work. Congratulations on your profits. Just to make sure I am clear this did not hit out triggers for a trade but I wanted to explain my opinion of the rally that occurred after the release and share with you the affect that revisions can have on the market.
The second trade we had was the US Retail Sales less autos which was expected at .3% as well. This did not hit our trigger and had quite a bit of conflicting news which caused for a rocky start. The main release we were watching didn’t come near our trigger and was less than expected which was a long biased and was backed by a revision of .4 less than reported which was also a long biased. On the other hand we had Import prices which doesn’t play a big role but was enough to stir things up when combined with the Initial jobless claims. Both of these releases where biased short however with the overall pressure up on the GBP/USD once the market had time to settle from the conflicting releases the trend for the session took over and the technical trade that I mentioned paid very well. I didn’t enter based on the news however I did take advantage of a discrepancy on the dealing station that paid out very well.
Tomorrow we have US CPI ex Food and Energy at 8:30am eastern, the expected number is .2% and the desired deviation is .2%. a higher than expected number signals a sell on the GBP/USD and a lower than expected number signals a buy. This release commonly comes out at .1% and historically has provided a decent move with .1% deviation however it is not consistent enough for me to consider an entry with that deviation. .2% deviation has provided excellent moves over 40 pips however in all likely hood this will be as expected or .1%. If you have a higher risk tolerance and are comfortable with volatile markets than you may want to trade with .1% however I will remain conservative on this release. In addition to the CPI ex F&G I will also be watching the core. The same rules apply. a higher number signals a sell and a lower number signals a buy. I will only be watching this to make sure it doesn’t conflict. I will be trading GBP/USD at 8:30am easter when the CPI is released. Good Luck!!!!
P. S. If this is the first time you are receiving my trade calls please visit this page for important information on how to trade my calls.
