I hope you had a great weekend. Mine was extremely busy and didn’t last long enough. I was looking over the calendar of upcoming trades and noticed that this week we have a lot of data coming out that has historically moved the market very well. Below I have posted some video examples of what the upcoming trades have done in the past. But first lets recap what happened on our last trade call.
Friday was somewhat disappointing simply because we only had one of the four releases we were watching trigger a trade and there was little profit taken. I personally closed out for 1 pip and we had reports of some taking 3 or 4 but this just didn’t move much so we closed down around the break even mark.
Now for the exciting stuff, this week we have a great line up and below are links to video examples for each release. I want you to see the potential for the upcoming releases.
UK Trade Balance – June 12, 4:30 am EDT – 15 pip move
UK CPI Y/Y – June 12, 4:30 am EDT – 50-70 pip move
US Retail Sales – June 13, 8:30 am EDT – 20 pip move
UK Retail Sales – June 14, 4:30 am EDT – 40 pip move
US CPI – June 15, 8:30 am EDT – medium trigger, but 25 pip move
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
As you can see from above, tomorrow we have the UK Trade balance and the UK CPI Core Y/Y. I will focus mainly on the CPI but the trade balance will definitely play a major factor in the move. The CPI is expected to be 1.8 and I will look for around .2 in deviation. A higher than expected number will signal a long and a lower than expected number will signal a short.
Other factors that may influence my decision will be the CPI monthly figure as well as the Trade balance. This really is one of the more difficult trades we have encountered with so many factors to contend with. I will definitely trade very conservative on this release.
The trade balance would affect the GBP/USD the same as the CPI with a higher than expected number providing a long bias. I would typically look for around .5b on this when it is on its own but its hard to say. Obviously if it comes out deviating by .3 but the CPI comes out .1 it could still be a good trade. Just be cautious.
Good Luck!!!
