For our last live trade call, we were watching the Canadian Retail Sales report last Friday. I suggested raising the medium trigger to 0.6% and the safe trigger to 1.0% as this release has not had a big impact on the market recently. The actual number came out with a deviation of -0.4%, so it did not meet our raised triggers. The USDCAD did move approximately 25 pips in the right direction, so that is a good sign.
View the video for this trade below:
[kml_flashembed movie="http://www.youtube.com/v/8OwfbmLi3lE" width="425" height="344" allowfullscreen="true" fvars="fs=1" /]
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
Tomorrow we will have an opportunity for a trade when the US Durable Goods report is released at 8:30 am EDT. We will be focusing on the US Core Durable Goods figure, which is expected to be -0.2%. We will be looking for a deviation of 2.0% on this report to trigger a safe trade. A higher than expected number will trigger a buy on the USDJPY and EURJPY.
We will likely prefer a sell trigger on this release as the USDJPY and EURJPY are currently in a down trend. We should still be able to trade a buy trigger, but we will likely look to close out quickly once we see 15-20 pips if it triggers a buy. We will need to be careful tomorrow as this release has not had a very strong impact on the market lately. In addition, the FOMC rate decision will be coming out tomorrow afternoon so there might be some higher volatility on the USD crosses tomorrow morning in anticipation of that release.
This report last met our safe trigger in March, and we had traders report profits up to 10-15 pips on the trade. The chart below shows the movement of the USDJPY at the time of this release. At the time of March’s release, the EURJPY moved approximately 35 pips.
To see the video of March’s trade, click on the link below:
[kml_flashembed movie="http://www.youtube.com/v/h8lSSD5Gves" width="425" height="344" allowfullscreen="true" fvars="fs=1" /]
This is our current outlook for this trade; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the release to get my commentary on this potential trade.
Good Luck!!!!
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