Today we were watching the US Retail Sales and we were hoping to see at least .5 in deviation however the analysts ended up being fairly accurate on this release and were only off by .1 so this was a no trade.
The market barley budged only moving down around 10 pips. This is a good example of why its just as important to know when not to trade as it is to know when to trade. To see the video of this release click on the following link.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
Tomorrow we have news coming out of the UK around 4:30 am eastern followed by data out of the US at 8:30 am eastern. the UK data has a couple of different components that will have an affect on the market.
The first and component will be the UK CPI Core which is Tied for importance with the CPI Monthly number. I would Say the Core is looked to a little more but we have not had Them conflict in a way that we could properly track which one truly has more affect..
They generally comes out in agreement and provides a very good move in the market however if they conflict we will be very cautious and consider closing our trade at the first sign of market reversal.
I will be trading GBP/USD and I would like to see the Core Numbers deviate by .2. The expected number is 1.8 so if the Actual number comes out at 2.0 or higher I will buy the GBP/USD and if it comes out 1.6 or lower I will go short or Sell.
Later in the morning we have US CPI Ex Food and Energy coming out and it is expected to be .2. This data is also being released along side the regular CPI monthly number which could also have a similar affect however the Ex Food and energy definitely tends to hold more weight out of these two numbers so that will be our focus.
I will look for a deviation of .2 or more and a higher than expected number will signal a sell and a lower than expected number will signal a buy. I will be trading the GBP/USD on this release as well. If the regular CPI conflicts I will monitor the market and exit if I see that it is exhausting….
Both of these releases have good potential for a trade and if our triggers our hit we could expect a really nice move. The following video is an example of what could happen. This was the February UK numbers which did hit our trigger and moved really nicely. The video is really short ( under 2 min). The transcripts are under the video pane so once you have watched the video you can scroll down and see what individual traders experienced.
Good Luck Trading!!!!
