OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
Tomorrow is a busy day as we have quite a bit of news coming out at the same time. First we have the UK GDP which is being released alongside current account.
The expected number is .7% and I would like to see around .2 for a safe trade. This could play out in a couple of different ways. The first would be the GDP coming out only .1 higher and the Current account also coming out higher than expected. If this Happens I believe you will be able to enter a long and do well. (25+ pips). If the current account conflicts than I would stay away. The opposite would apply if the numbers came out lower than expected.
Another possibility is the GDP comes out .2 higher than expected. If this happens it will be a good buy as long as the current account doesn’t conflict by more than 1.0. If the current account conflicts by more than that I would be cautious and bail if it starts turning. Again if it comes out lower than expected the opposite would hold true.
If the current account comes out as expected I would trade the GDP with .2 in deviation and look for around 30 to 50 pips. That would be the ideal situation or .2 and the current account in agreement would of course be even better. A higher than expected number signals a buy on the GBP/USD and a lower than expected number signals a sell on the GBP/USD. This data will be released at 4:30am eastern.
THE NEXT RELEASE
The next releases that will have an affect on the market are the US GDP, CAD GDP, and the CAD retail sales Less autos. In addition To those we also have personal consumption and Core CPE both of Which may play a small factor in the move. All these will be released At 8:30am eastern. My advice to you if you are new is to stand on the Sidelines and trade with a demo as the market may whipsaw quite a bit.
Suggestion one would be to trade the GBP/USD based on the US GDP and look for around .5 in deviation. This will probably be the Easiest of the options however you will need to keep an eye on the Core PCE as well. If the GDP hits our triggers I would expect at least a 25 pip move. This is not one of my favorite trades as I have seen deviations like that move the market 50 to 100 pips and I have seen it move the market 17 pips so we will keep a close eye and if it starts to reverse we will close.
The next possibility will be trading the EUR/CAD based on the CAD data. This is a more complicated and dangerous trade however it could potentially move the market really well. The main numbers to watch are the GDP and the Retail Sales. If the GDP deviates by .2 it is generally a good trade so if we get .2 in deviation on this release than it will be a good trade providing that the retails sales figures do not conflict. When trading the retail sales figures .5 is a good trigger to use and both the less autos and the monthly number can impact the market.
If there is sufficient deviation on these releases and the GDP doesn’t Conflict than this will provide for a nice move. If all the data comes out in agreement this will be a great move and you can get away with using smaller deviation for your trigger however as you can imagine There are hundreds if not thousands of possible outcomes so keep it simple. higher than expected numbers will signal a sell on the EUR/CAD and lower than expected numbers will signal a buy.
I suggest trade the US data as it will be a little easier to trade, I will personally be trading both releases to test the RSS to trade based on different pieces of data.
Good Luck trading!!!
