For our last trade call, we were watching US Durable Goods and
we were looking for 3.0% in deviation to trigger a trade. We
did not get enough deviation to give us a trade. We have made
some adjustments to our triggers on this release simply because
we have not received much movement for the last five to six
months.
My recommendation yesterday morning was actually to look for a
long. We wanted to see a buy signal for the EURUSD, which
meant we wanted to see US dollar weakness. We did see the
dollar weakness and my suggestion was not to enter long on this
info but to short the EUR when it went up to 1.4337. In
addition, we also gave a call for a long on the USDCAD. My
plan was to go long at the .9615 area if the data came out weak
for the Dollar and it did. So, both of those levels were
struck and yesterday the Euro moved from 1.4337 all the way
down to 1.4287. So we had almost a 50 point move there. The
USDCAD moved from .9615 all the way up to .9686, so there was
almost a 70 point move there.
So there were two basic, simple trades. At this point, most took some profit on those trades. We’re still holding out looking for some longer-term targets.
To see a video of yesterday’s trade and hear my comments I made
about these levels, click on the link below:
COMMENTARY ON THE USDCAD…
I want to provide some commentary for this USDCAD. We’re
anticipating a long-term move on the USDCAD. We expect to see
some CAD weakness or some USD strength as both will have the
same effect. With oil prices at record highs and the Canadian
Dollar stronger than it has been in years and years and years,
the overall expense to buy oil from them has gone up and it is
definitely hurting their economy as people are not wanting to
spend money in Canada now because their currency doesn’t go as
far as it used to. So, they’re trying hard to get it back up
around .9800.
I think we’ll see 1.0200 eventually, so we are holding out on
the USDCAD looking for a long-term trade up to 1.0200. If you
are going to attempt to enter this trade, my suggestion would
be trade with low leverage. I suggest a five-to-one leverage,
meaning five mini lots per $10,000 max, and I wouldn’t just get
in all at once. Start with a small position and build it down
to around the .9600 area and then hold on and we’ll see if this
can make a run. We may see the USDCAD push a bit lower but the
reversal should be soon. Our next trade call is not for a
while, so again we’re going to have another break.
I may post some commentary from time to time over the coming
days about the bank flow levels and where the orders are at,
just to give everyone a taste of what we’re doing. Hopefully
you can benefit from that and make some good money.
