I wanted to recap what we did on the last live trade call and give you the criteria for potential trades tonight and tomorrow.
The last trade call I sent out covered the US GDP report this morning. For the Retail Sales Less Autos report, our plan was to go long on the GBP/USD if the release came out lower than expected by 0.5% or more from the expected number of 4.0%.The actual number came out with a deviation of 0.1%, so our trigger was not hit and we did not enter this trade.
To see the video of the trade click on the following link:
TRADING OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT
There is an opportunity to trade tonight when the AUD Retail Sales and Trade Balance reports are released at 9:30 pm EDT. You will need to be very careful if you decide to trade these releases. There are three scenarios that we can see tonight.
1. One of the reports comes out as expected and the other triggers either a buy or sell.
2. The reports come out in conflict with each other and the market spikes one way then the other.
3. The reports both come out in agreement and we see a substantial move in one direction. History has shown that the better mover of the two has been the Retail Sales report. There are three times in the past two years that these reports have been released at the same time, and two of those times the data was conflicting.
The last time the data was conflicting was last month, and the market moved in the direction of the Retail Sales report, even with a major deviation on the Trade Balance. The AUD Retail Sales is expected to be 0.6%. We have set a safe trigger of 0.5% for this release. We have seen a deviation of at least 0.5% the last three out of five months, and we have seen moves of between 25-30 pips each month.
The AUD Trade Balance is expected to be -$1,000 Million. We would typically place a safe trigger of $500 Million on this release, but I would suggest that you not try to trade this release this month. It is better to not get into a trade than to get in a bad trade. Again, you should be very cautious if you trade these releases tonight.We will not have the Live Trade Room open, but we wanted to make you aware of this potential trade opportunity.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
We will have an opportunity to trade tomorrow when the Canadian GDP report is released at 8:30 am EDT. For the CAD GDP, we will be focusing on the EUR/CAD since we have a US news release at the same time. The expectation for this report is 0.0%. A higher than expected number will be good for the CAD and signal a short on the EUR/CAD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the CAD and signal a long on the EUR/CAD.
We will be looking for a deviation of 0.3% on this report to trigger a safe trade. Although this release typically does not hit our safe trigger, we have had some good moves in previous months when it has met our medium trigger of 0.2%. In June this report met our medium trigger and we saw a move of almost 70 pips on the EUR/CAD.
To see a video of this trade click on the following link:
Good Luck!!!!
