I wanted to recap what we did on the last live trade call and give you the criteria for potential trades tonight and tomorrow. The last trade call I sent out covered the US Retail Sales report this morning.
For the Retail Sales Less Autos report, our plan was to go long on the GBP/USD if the release came out lower than expected by 0.5% or more from the expected number of 0.5%. The actual number came out with no deviation, so our trigger was not hit and we did not enter this trade. To see the video of the trade click on the following link:
TRADING OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT
There is an opportunity to trade tonight when the NZD Retail Sales report is released at 6:45 pm EDT. The NZD Retail Sales All Industries is expected to be 0.4%. We have set a safe trigger of 0.3% for this release. We have seen a deviation of at least 0.3% the last five months, and we have seen strong moves of between 30-40 pips each month. We will not have the Live Trade Room open, but we wanted to make you aware of this potential trade opportunity.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
We will have a busy day tomorrow as we will have three news reports coming out. The first is the UK CPI report that will be released at 4:30 am EDT. The expected number for the CPI EU Harmonized YoY report is 2.3%. A higher than expected number will be good for the GBP and signal a long on the GBP/USD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the GBP/USD and signal a short on the GBP/USD. We will be looking for a deviation of 0.2% on this report to trigger a safe trade.
We have seen some very good moves even with a medium trigger deviation of 0.1%. The last two months our medium triggers were met and we had moves of over 40 pips each month. Last month we had traders who reported profits of over $10,000 on this particular trade. To see the video of last month’s trade click on the following link:
The next two reports will come out at the same time tomorrow. The US Trade Balance and the Canadian Trade Balance reports will both be released at 8:30 am EDT.
For the US Trade Balance report, the expectation is -$61 Billion. A higher than expected number (less negative) will be good for the USD and signal a short on the GBP/USD, and a lower than expected number (more negative) will be bad for the USD and signal a long on the GBP/USD. We will be looking for a deviation of $1.5 Billion on this report to trigger a safe trade. The last time our safe trigger was hit on this report was in June, where we saw a 15-20 pip move.
For the CAD Trade Balance, we will be focusing on the EUR/CAD since we have the US news release at the same time. The expectation for this report is approximately $5.6 Billion. A higher than expected number will be good for the CAD and signal a short on the EUR/CAD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the CAD and signal a long on the EUR/CAD. We will be looking for a deviation of $0.8 Billion on this report to trigger a safe trade.
The last time we had a deviation of at least $0.8 Billion was in June, and we had a move on the EUR/CAD of over 35 pips. We do not have a video from June, but we do have a video from this report in May that hit the triggers that we will be using. To see a video of this trade click on the following link:
Good Luck!!!!
