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Comments: Commodities continue to be strong but the bull is showing signs of exhaustion in many areas. After exploding to the upside, grains as a whole have been unable to maintain those high prices. Gold too has been unable to push through recent highs. We are in no way saying that the bull in commodities…
Comments: This week we start off with the Presidents Day holiday here in the States. This will as usual cause a significant drop in liquidity which in turn causes a spike in volatility. Be careful trading the next 24 hours as normal support resistance levels have less chance of holding due to this lack of…
Comments: The CRB index hit another record. Grain prices exploded to the upside on the back of Friday’s Crop progress and Supply Demand reports. We mentioned last week that the current up trend in commodities is reaching unsuitable levels. This continues to be true so be careful with any new long entries at current levels. …
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Last week played out much like we expected. The RBA did raise rates while the BOE cut and the ECB did nothing. This week we do not have a lot of new data coming out so look for more range bound action this week. We continue to see the Dollar struggling in the near term but ultimately still holding support well above the double bottom lows near 75.
Sorry for the delay in this post. This was originally written on Monday02/04/08. Comments: This week we have the RBA, ECB, and BOE all meeting to determine interest rates in their respective countries or regions. We see the RBA raising rates, the ECB holding rates steady, and the BOE cutting rates. So as mixed a…
Sorry for the delay in this post. This was originally written on Monday02/04/08. Comments: We follow last weeks FOMC meeting with three major rate decisions’ around the world this week. The first one being the RBA later this evening, the others being the BOE and ECB later in the week. We expect the RBA to…
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This week, we have the FOMC meeting to contend with but on the commodities front we feel that there are other even more important things to mention. The traditional measure of the how the Commodities markets are doing as a whole has been the CRB index. This index has undergone a number of changes in recent years but the bottom line is no matter how you measure it, commodities as a whole are at all time highs. And I mean all time not just life of contract highs, but real all time highs in the history of recorded time in many cases.
This week we start off with a holiday here in the States. As usual the lack of volume will cause volatility to be more extreme than normal. Global stock markets continue to fall as they begin to realize that the problems here in the US will not be fixed anytime soon. This is also causing…
General Market Comments What an amazing start of the year it has been. We have seen volatility levels continue to increase even after volume came back up to normal levels. Bernanke really through the market a curve ball last week by being as doveish as he was in his statement. That doveish tone was in…
The holiday season is now behind us and this week will be the first week of 2008 that is back to business as usual. That means that volume will finally get back to normal levels and volatility, while still high relative to the past, should begin to contract from the extreme holiday levels. We see…
Happy holidays to one and all! This week is of course Christmas, volume continues to fall making movements more erratic than usual in many cases. We suggest most traders take the next week or two off and enjoy the holiday. If you do trade continue to keep position sizes low. Do not read too much…
General market comments: Last weeks FOMC report came out within the expectations. As we forecasted, it turned out to be good for the Dollar. We have now seen significant moves in the Dollar against all of the majors. This Week we are expecting a small near term pullback in the Dollar which we will use…