We have a a moderate slot open at 7:30pm. I will strive to assess the technical outlook and if I can deliver an effective trade with limited risk I will publish it here. I anticipate an immediate but temporary ‘price movement’ in one direction that may be reversed — I call this a volume hump. I always consider the immediate intra-day trend but I hope to never loose focus of the overall trend.
Today US Treasurys — particularly the 10 year — put in another strong price performance. I anticipated that yields would rise (allowing price for the sale to fall) but this did not occur. Earlier in the day the sale of Euro Bunds stalled and suffered a lack of participation according to wire reports. On one hand this portends a lack of risk pertaining to US yields but on the other hand it appears that banks preferred to NOT acquire dollars in the open market. This may be short term aberration or the beginning of a new interbank position.
I rarely trade fundamental events. I am usually willing to factor fundamental events into my technical assessment of the popular Pair (eur/usd) in tandem with the US Dollar Index.
Currently the Euro against the Dollar is striving to break the bullish movement today leaving me with somewhat of a bearish tone. On the other hand — I must consider the structure of the Index therefore — I will strive to exhibit patience and issue a trade once I see a loop ‘dloop with a reconfirmation of support or resistance and a risk reward equal or greater than 2:1. All comments or opinions are desired and if you see I am missing the mark please let me know.
As for tomorrow and the US Jobs report, well, to say the least — technical structures usually get front run and according to the results at 8:30 one will need to have pre-paid there risk. I will consider the structure tomorrow morning and if I see that the market is misplaced — I will issue a trade in advance of the report with proper risk defined and if I cannot determine that, you won’t be reading a new post. Be well!
Britt
