OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
for May 8, 2009…
The first release is the Canadian Labor Change report, which will be released at 7:00 am EDT. This is one of my favorite releases as our safe trigger is often met and we get some very good moves on this particular release. The expectation for this report is -48.5k jobs.
A higher than expected number will be good for the CAD and signal a short on the USDCAD and EURCAD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the CAD and signal a long on the USDCAD and EURCAD. We will be looking for a deviation of 15k on this report to trigger a safe trade.
We will most likely prefer a sell trigger on this particular release as the USDCAD and EURCAD have both been in down trends the past few weeks. However, it should provide a good move either way but we will likely close out sooner if we get a buy trigger.
This report has met our safe trigger in eight out of the last twelve months, and we have had forex traders report profits of up to 40 pips and more on each trade. We have even had traders report profits of up to 100 pips and more on the EURCAD on this release.
This release last met our safe trigger in March and we had traders report profits of up to 30 pips on the USDCAD and EURCAD. The chart below shows the movement on the USDCAD during the time of March’s release:
To see the video of March’s trade, click on the link below:
The other opportunity for a trade tomorrow comes when the US Non-Farm Payrolls report is released at 8:30 am EDT. We will focus on the Non-Farm Payrolls figure, which is expected to be approximately -590k jobs. We have changed our focus on this one to the USDJPY as it has moved better than the GBPUSD in recent months.
A higher than expected number will be good for the USD and signal a long on the USDJPY, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the USD and signal a short on the USDJPY. We will be looking for a deviation of 50k on this report to trigger a safe trade.
We will be cautious with this trade as there has been a tendency lately for this report to provide an initial spike in the direction of the data and then significant market reversals. We will most likely prefer a buy trigger as that could have a bigger impact on the US Dollar than a sell trigger. The USDJPY has also been in an uptrend the last few weeks as well. I anticipate a 30-50 spike either way, but it just may be a quick spike if we get a sell trigger.
This report last met our safe trigger in January, and we had traders report profits of up to 40 pips on the USD/JPY. The chart below shows the movement on the USDJPY at the time of January’s release:
We did not get a video of January’s trade, but to see a video of December’s trade, click on the link below:
This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these potential trades.
Good Luck!!!!
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