TRADE CALL RECAP
Our last live trade call was for the US CPI report, which was
released last Friday. We were looking to long the GBP/USD if
the number came out at least 0.1% worse than expected. The
actual number came out with a deviation of -0.2%, so it met our
safe trigger and several of our traders entered a buy on the
GBP/USD. After a quick spike up, the GBP/USD went down over
the next couple of hours and some of our traders took a loss on
this trade. To see a video of the trade, click on the link
below:
There is an explanation of why the trade went the wrong way
after a quick spike. Everyone is looking towards the upcoming
rate decision tomorrow. Despite coming out lower than the
expectation, it did not come out lower than last month and
therefore the situation has not worsened. Because of this, it
is possible that the lack of change could have some influence
over the decision whether to lower rates or not. This
unchanged number may lead more to the not lowering side, which
is good for the US and that is why we saw the US Dollar gain
strength after the data.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
Tomorrow we will have an opportunity to trade when the UK CPI
and Canadian CPI reports are released.
The first potential trade will be the UK CPI report when it is
released at 5:30 am EDT. There are several components to this
release, and we will be focusing on the UK CPI (EU Harmonized
YoY) figure. The expectation for this report is 2.5%. We will
be looking for a deviation of 0.2% to trigger a safe trade. We
seldom get a safe trigger, but we can get some good moves when
our medium trigger of 0.1% is met. This release has at least
met our medium trigger the last eight months, and we have seen
moves of 20 to 80 pips each month.
�
This report met our medium trigger last month, and the market
moved approximately 50 pips. We do not have a video of this
trade.
The second opportunity will be on the Canadian CPI, which will
be released at 7:00 am EDT. There are also several components
to this release, and we will be focusing on the CAD CPI
Excluding Core 8 (YoY) figure. The expectation for this report
is 1.2%. We will be looking for a deviation of 0.2% to trigger
a safe trade. A lower than expected number will trigger a buy
on the USD/CAD or EUR/CAD.
�
This report last met our safe trigger in January, and the
market moved over 50 pips. We were not able to get a video of
this trade, but we do have a video of November’s trade that
also met our safe trigger and provided a 50 pip move as well.
To see a video of November’s trade, click on the link below:
This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is
subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow.
Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to
the release to get my commentary on these potential trades.
Good Luck!!!!
