TRADE CALL RECAP
For our last live trade call, we were watching the US GDP report last Friday. For the US GDP report, we changed our focus to the USD/JPY as it has had better moves later, and set it to sell the USD/JPY if the report came out at least 0.4% worse than expected. The actual number came out with a -0.8% deviation, so it met our safe trigger.
The USD/JPY initially dropped about 10-15 pips before bouncing back up and closing most traders out with gains up to 10 pips. We also cautioned that the other data that was released was in conflict with the trade, so it was good to close quickly. After a couple of minutes the USD/JPY finally dropped approximately 40 pips from most people’s open prices. We do not have a video from this particular trade.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
We will have two opportunities for trades tomorrow. The first opportunity will be at 8:30 am EST when the Canadian GDP report is released. The expectation for the Canadian GDP release is -0.7%, and we will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.2% to trigger a safe trade. A higher than expected number would be good for the CAD, and signal a sell on the USDCAD and EURCAD. We can expect a 25-80 pip move on the EURCAD if it meets our safe trigger.
Canadian GDP Release
This release could prove to be an interesting one as the Canadian GDP is the broadest measure of economic health in Canada, so it typically provides some good moves when it is released. We will most likely prefer a buy trigger on this release as the EUR/CAD and USD/CAD are both in a strong up trend. We will use caution as this release caused a quick spike last month, followed by a quick reversal against the trade.
This report has met our safe trigger five out of the last twelve months, causing the EUR/CAD to move between 25 and 80 pips each time. This report last met our safe trigger last month and we had traders report profits up 15 pips on the EUR/CAD, depending on their entries. Again, it only made a quick spike before reversing last month. Below is a chart for the EUR/CAD at the time of last month’s release:
To see a video of last month’s trade, click on the link below:
US ISM Manufacturing Report
Our second live trade opportunity tomorrow is when the US ISM Manufacturing Report is released at 10:00 am EST. The expected number for this report is 34.0. A higher than expected number will be good for the USD and signal a long on the USD/JPY, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the USD and signal a short on the USD/JPY. We will be looking for a deviation of 1.5 on this report to trigger a safe trade.
We will likely prefer a buy trigger as a better than expected number could have a bigger effect on the USD than a lower than expected number. However, we could see a good move on a sell trigger as well.
This report last met our safe trigger last month and we had traders report profit of up to 30 pips, depending on their entries. The movement on the USD/JPY at the time of last month’s release is shown in the chart below:
We did not get a video of last month’s trade. To see the video of November’s trade, click on the following link:
This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on the trades.
Good Luck!!!!
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