TRADE CALL RECAPS
Last Friday we were watching the Canadian Labor Change and US
Non-Farm Payrolls reports. For the Canadian release, we were
looking to long the USDCAD or EURCAD if the number came out 15k
worse than expected. The actual number came out with a -1.4k
deviation, so it did not meet our trigger and we did not enter
this trade.
For the US Non-Farm Payrolls we were looking to long the USDJPY
if the number came out at least 50k better than expected. The
actual deviation was only 8k jobs, so it did not meet our safe
trigger and we did not enter this trade either.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
Tomorrow we will have two opportunities for trades tomorrow
among three economic news releases.
The first opportunity will be when the UK Industrial Production
report is released at 4:30 am EDT. We will be focusing on the
Industrial Production (MoM) figure. The expectation for this
report is 0.0%. We will be looking for a deviation of 0.5% on
this report to trigger a safe trade. A better than expected
figure will trigger a buy on the GBP/USD.
This report last met our safe trigger in November, and we had
traders get in and report profits of up to 30 pips. To see a
video of November’s trade, click on the link below:
The second opportunity will be at 8:30 am EDT when the Canadian
Trade Balance and the US Trade Balance reports will both be
released. With the RSS software, we will have the ability to
trade both of these releases across multiple currencies.
Our main focus will be on the CAD Trade Balance, as we
typically see better moves if this release meets our safe
trigger. If you are only able to trade one currency pair with
your broker, you should trade the EUR/CAD for this release as
the US data is coming out at the same time. For this report,
the expected number is $5.7 Billion. A higher than expected
number will be good for the CAD and signal a short on the
EUR/CAD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the
CAD and signal a long on the EUR/CAD. We will be looking for a
deviation of $0.8 Billion on this report to signal a safe
trade.
This report has hit our safe trigger six out of the last nine
months, and the market has moved 20-35 pips each month. This
release met our safe trigger last month and we had traders
report profits of up to 25 pips, depending on their entries.
We do not have a video of last month’s trade, but we do of
April’s. To see a video of April’s trade, click on the link
below:
For the US Trade Balance, the expected number is -$61.3
Billion. A higher than expected number (less negative) will be
good for the USD and signal a long on the USD/JPY and a lower
than expected number (more negative) will be bad for the USD
and signal a short on the USD/JPY. We will be looking for a
deviation of $1.5 Billion on this report to trigger a safe
trade.
This report met our safe trigger last month, and the USD/JPY
only moved approximately 15 pips. We have not had much
movement on this release the last couple of months, so I would
recommend focusing on the Canadian Trade Balance.
This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is
subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow.
Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to
the releases to get my commentary on these potential trades.
BANK FLOW WEEKLY RECAP
It was another positive week on the Bank Flow trades that
Jonathan Silver posted. You could have netted approximately 30
pips last week by closing out at the best exits on the
profitable trade. One of the losses was for only half lots and
Jonathan posted re-entries on both of the trades that were
stopped out that more than made up for the losses. The trades
that were called last week are as follows:
6/3/08 – Buy USDCHF @ 1.0306 – Closed partial at +100, rest at
+140
6/4/08 – Buy GBPUSD @ 1.9536 (half lots) – Closed at -71 pips.
When this trade got down to the stop area, Jonathan posted that
you could re-enter a buy at 1.9467, and that has provided up to
300 pips of profit.
6/4/08 – Sell USDCAD @ 1.0170 – Closed at -40 pips; Jonathan
suggested re-entering at 1.0205 and it showed approximately 50
pips of profit before coming back to get the breakeven stops.
If you have not yet had a trial our Bank Flow service, you may
click on the link below to get started.
Good Luck!!!!
