TRADE CALL RECAP
Our last live trade call was yesterday when we were watching
the UK Industrial Production report. We were looking to short
the GBPUSD if the number came out at least 0.5% worse than
expected. The number came out with a -0.3% deviation, so it
did not meet our safe trigger and we did not enter a trade. To
see the video of this trade, click on the link below:
Also, we put out some information in our last trade call e-mail
regarding the AUD Retail Sales report that was released Monday
night. If you traded that, you probably noticed that the
market initially moved the wrong direction for the deviation
that met the safe trigger. After about 30 minutes, the market
finally moved in the direction of the trigger and paid out
about 50 pips. The reason for the initial move in the wrong
direction was due to the fact that the news was reported in a
different way than it had previously. It seems that people
weren’t sure how to interpret the new information, and so the
market initially went the wrong way. We are going to hold off
providing any information on this particular release for the
next several months until it becomes more predictable.
TRADE OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT
There is an opportunity to trade tonight when the AUD Labor
Force Employment report is released at 9:30 pm EDT. The
expectation for this release is 5k jobs. We have lowered the
safe trigger to 15k jobs for this release, as we have
historically seen moves of around 25 to 40 pips when this
release has met this safe deviation. We will not have the Live
Trade Room open for this trade, but we wanted to make you aware
of the opportunity.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
Tomorrow we will have two opportunities to trade when both the
Canadian Trade Balance and the US Trade Balance reports are
released at 8:30 am EDT. With the RSS software, we will have
the ability to trade both of these releases across multiple
currencies.
Our main focus will be on the Canadian Trade Balance, as we
typically see better moves if this release meets our safe
trigger. If you are only able to trade one currency pair with
your broker, you should trade the EUR/CAD for this release as
the US data is coming out at the same time. For this report,
the expected number is $5.6 Billion. A higher than expected
number will be good for the CAD and signal a short on the
EUR/CAD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the
CAD and signal a long on the EUR/CAD. We will be looking for a
deviation of $0.8 Billion on this report to signal a safe
trade.
This report has hit our safe trigger five out of the last ten
months, and the market has moved 20-35 pips each month. This
release last met our safe trigger in May and we had traders
report profits of up to 25 pips, depending on their entries.
We did not get a video of this trade, but to see a video of
April’s trade, click on the link below:
For the US Trade Balance, the expected number is -$58 Billion.
A higher than expected number (less negative) will be good for
the USD and signal a long on the USD/JPY and a lower than
expected number (more negative) will be bad for the USD and
signal a short on the USD/JPY. We will be looking for a
deviation of $1.5 Billion on this report to trigger a safe
trade.
This report met our safe trigger last two months, and the
USD/JPY only moved approximately 15 pips each time. This is
why we focus more on the Canadian release.
This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is
subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow.
Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to
the releases to get my commentary on these potential trades.
Good Luck!!!!
