Comments:
This week we have a lot of data coming out. Here in the US we have PPI, then later in the week we have GDP coming out of England. We expect to see another week of mixed movement with little directional bias. Overall the Dollar is still trying to find and hold a bottom and we believe that it will ultimately begin to rally later in the year. Near term we expect to see the old lows on the Dollar index tested over the next 30 days or so and are therefore selling Dollar rallies.
Eur:
Last week we advised readers to exit our longs on a push to 1.48 so you should now have exited with roughly 300 pips. We are hitting a significant resistance level between 1.48 – 1.50. We expect to see some wild volatility as we see the market test the 1.50 level. We do not expect the market to be able to maintain itself above 1.50 in the near term and are therefore looking to sell any rallies near 1.50.
GBP:
The cable has had a great rally last week but we failed to hit our 1.98 target. Near term we are going ahead and exiting our longs from last week early this week near 1.97. We are also light short sellers at that level looking to cover those shorts below 1.96. Longer term we remain buyers of dips. So when we cover our existing shorts we will at the same time be buying long and again targeting a move to 1.98.
CHF:
Last week we told readers to run sell stops on longs from 109 at 1.0989 our stops were hit and we took at least 89 pips of profit per lot. This week we are looking for the Chf to fall back towards 1.08 at which point we will look to be buyers again. Overall choppy action expected this week as we retest the old lows.
JPY:
Last week we advised readers to buy any dip below 107. If you took that trade you should now have at least 50 pips of profit and I now suggest you move your stops to breakeven. We are targeting a move up to retest the highs near 108.50 and longer term expect to see 110. This week we will add to our position on major dips.
AUS:
The Ausi remains strong and is now poised to test the 2007 highs. We do not see those levels being maintained and here too we will become sellers of any rally over .9325, with stops above .9434.
Cad:
We continue to be sellers of rallies in this pair. Any sells over 101 should be held for the long term with stops above 102.
