Comments:
The Dollar continues to get hammered as we edge closer to the next FOMC announcement. We do expect them to cut by at least .50 and .75 or even 1.00 is not out of the question. The .50 cut is already priced into the dollar but more than that and we will likely see another leg down in the Dollar. On the flip side though, after this next cut the FOMC will have little room left to cut. So we could finally begin to see the Dollar stabilize on the back of this next FOMC meeting as you cannot go below zero and we are now very close to that. Stagflation is here and it is here to stay so strap yourself in and hold on as the road ahead is rocky to say the least.
EUR:
Last week we mentioned that we were waiting to see if the Euro could stay above 1.50. So far it has been able to maintain those levels. However we remain cautious and remain biased to selling these rallies rather than buying dips. We expect Friday’s NFP highs to hold this week as resistance.
GBP:
The cable broke out of its channel last week and is now trading well above the 2.00 level. Near term we expect to see the 2.00 support level tested later this week. We will look to buy the next major dip in this pair as longer term we see at least 2.05 being tested.
CHF:
The Swissy continues to get pushed lower. We expect Friday’s lows to hold this week and are looking to buy dips in this pair with stops below those NFP lows.
JPY:
We feel that Friday’s lows in this pair will also hold as support this week and we are buying dips with stops below those lows as well. The world is not about to end and traders will have little choice but to chase risk looking for some kind of return.
Aus:
The Ausi has peaked in the near term as we mentioned in past issues. We continue to sell rallies in this pair. Our longer term target is a move back below .90. Remember that the Ausi tends to lead trend changes in the Dollar and the fact that it is selling off after rate hikes by the RBA should be seen as a leading indicator for the overall Dollar.
Cad:
Cad continues to trade sideways. We are looking for another push over parity to get short again as longer term we are looking for a move back to at least .96.
