This week we have very few reports coming out so we should see a week with little to no trending action. We expect most of these markets to remain range bound throughout the week. Friday morning we have a few reports out that could give us some directional bias going into next week but again this week we are simply trading the range. We continue to see a macro change in trend for the US Dollar. This change in trend has already been going on for over 6 months and could continue for another 6 months. We are in no way trying to call an absolute bottom on the Dollar but for the near to medium term we continue to see the Dollar at best moving higher and at worst trading sideways. But the bottom line is at least a pause in the Dollar’s free fall if not an outright turn.
EUR/USD:
The Euro is now testing support just below the 154 handle. We are buyers between 1.5455 – 1.5413 with stops below 1.5321. We are targeting a move back up to at least 1.56.
GBP/USD:
The Cable has been a buy fro the last few months each time it dips below 1.9750 with stops below 1.96, this time is no exception. This week we are trying to buy long between 1.9655 – 1.9621 with stops below 1.9589. We will begin to scale out of these on pushes above 1.9850 – 2.0000.
USD/CHF:
This pair we are selling on rallies above 1.0555 – 1.0589 with stops above 1.0613. Targeting a move back below at least 1.04.
USD/JPY:
This pair had a great rally last week but this week we expect to see it stall and begin to build a new range between 103-106. We are therefore looking to sell into rallies above 105.21 with stops above 105.89. Targeting a move back to at least 104.
AUD/USD:
The Ausi has seen a rally back to retest the recent highs. This is largely due to the rally in Crude oil we are seeing this morning. We expect to see this market hold below the recent highs and are therefore shorting above .9455 with stops above .9555 while targeting a move back to at least .9200. Bottom line here is simply we expect a range to be built between 90-95 for the next month or so.
USD/CAD:
We continue to sell rallies over 1.02 with stops above 1.0255. Should those stops get hit we would look to short again above that stop with a new stop above 1.0355. In either case the target is a retest of parity.
